What is Net Operating Income?

February 22nd, 2009

Question - What is net operating income? Does it equal cash flow available for debt service?

Answer - The fact is that net operating income does NOT equal cash flow available for debt service.  Items like a capital reserve, major capital improvements, tenant improvement expenditures, and commission expenditures need to be subtracted from net operating income to get to that bottom line of “cash flow available for debt service.”

As such, a capitalization rate (net operating income divided by purchase price), while a good sort of yard stick or rule of thumb indicator, is not a necessarily a particularly good indicator of yield. Consider two different investments:

  • Building A is a brand new 30′ clear warehouse leased to the US Government on a long term basis, and
  • Building B is a 1980s office building with 20 tenants, local and regional credit, with gradual lease rollover.

Both trading at a purported “10% cap rate.”

Building B is going to require recurrent tenant improvement expenses and leasing commissions where Building A does not.

So why buy Building B?  Well, there are potentially lots of good reasons. Perhaps the rents in Building B are below market. There is arguably less risk in building B, because if a single tenant moves out, you’re left with an empty building. Perhaps building B is located in a better market with more dramatic rent growth. Perhaps the price per square foot of building B is well below replacement cost, and in the case of building A you’re paying more than it would cost to build the building.

So it just goes to show you that a cap rate should only begin your underwriting. You’ve got to take into account return of time (internal rate of return), the market, the building condition, and on and on.

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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis in Argus

February 21st, 2009

Owing to excess capacity, I’m pleased to offer inexpensive financial modeling/discounted cash flow analysis in Argus available for office/retail/industrial/flex buildings from my in-house financial analysis group to third parties.

Output in Excel is free plus we provide the source Argus (.sf) file to share with clients.

Attractive full color custom reports also available at an additional charge.

Introductory price while we grow this business: $100 + $10 for each tenant. Includes one free set of modifications.

Turnaround in 2 business days or less.

Email me at ckubler@klnb.com or call 301-455-8840 for more details.

Expect commercial real estate commissions to rise

February 19th, 2009

A consequence of the utterly lousy commercial real estate market is that suffering landlords and sellers are likely going to need to start to pay higher commissions. Those higher commissions will be needed to lure the best seller and landlord representatives, who are risking more taking on assignments in this market: despite their best efforts not every space will lease and not every building will sell. Representatives of buyers and tenants will demand even higher fees, and deserve them: they control a very precious commodity in today’s market…at least in the case of creditworthy tenants.

I’m not going to win many friends among owners for saying it, but it’s time for brokers to start demanding higher commissions. Don’t get green with envy for the brokers. The volume of investment sales transactions is down 70 to 80 percent. Leasing transactions are not moving robustly either, with tenants staying put and renewing for very short terms in many cases.

The opportunity for brokers in this market is representing the most motivated of sellers: those that are facing distress and must sell to raise cash. We’re seeing many more of those sellers in places like Michigan, Ohio and Florida. In the Washington DC area the distress is primarily in vacant buildings or residential land.

Established auctioneers are a busy lot, and brokerages are ramping up groups to market distressed assets for sale or to deal with workout situations.

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Watch out for the sublease space spiral

February 18th, 2009

As the market continues to struggle we will continue to see the amount of sublease space available to grow. Tenants with unneeded space are especially motivated to move sublease space. Their goal is not to create value in a building or positive cash flow but simply to “stop the bleeding” of rent that must otherwise be paid for unwanted space. As such they slash asking rents and make vicious competitors to owners with space to move.

Landlords competing with sublease space can highlight some of their advantages including an ability to offer renewal terms, to fund tenant improvements, and to offer expansion or relocation within a larger portfolio.

Tenants should take a hard look at sublease opportunities on the market
as they can offer a phenomenal opportunity for savings. Tenant brokers may not push these options as subleases can be more difficult to transact, and may offer smaller commissions (owing to shorter lease terms). It may also be more challenging to collect commissions from sublandlords. As such you may need to push your broker to seek out sublease opportunities on your behalf and make sure your broker collects the fee he or she has earned.

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NNN Real Estate is Garbage

February 16th, 2009

Square Feet Blog picked up a story on a story about a class action law suit accusing Marcus and Millichap and a businessman of colluding to sell net leased property at inflated prices and and then close the businesses renting the space.

Sophisticated owner-occupants of space can use sale-leasebacks to their advantage. These sale-leasebacks are effectively financing transactions, allowing the user of space to get cash without racking up debt on its balance sheet. The transactions unlock “trapped equity” that a business can deploy to grow its business.

Sophisticated buyers of net leased property in most cases are careful to set leaseback rents at market and to avoid paying more than the “replacement cost” of the asset, i.e. the market value of the land plus the construction cost of the building in today’s dollars.

What is true is that most ‘individual, freestanding ’single tenant net leased properties” have been and remain grossly overpriced to this day. buyers  of freestanding triple net retail buildings at the peak of the market were paying $500 per square foot or (much) more and tolerating yields of 6% or lower for a 20 year lease with a drug store in a tertiary location. The buyers have typically been private buyers often with 1031 exchange dollars to invest.

Some groups like Cardinal Capital made tens of millions by buying well “wholesale” from users and then selling to these private buyers at “retail” prices.

Whether there was intent to defraud these private buyers in the case the LA Times story highlighted is unclear. In most cases these private buyers have simply just made poor decisions by overpaying for these properties. They’ve paid well over replacement cost and made bets on companies with questionable credit all in the name of deferring capital gains taxes. I don’t begrudge the brokers representing sellers in these cases; they were doing their job by fetching the best prices for their seller-clients. In the realm of commercial investment real estate, there is generally a presumption made that the parties to the transaction are sophisticated. Transaction timetables typically allow for a significant due diligence period during which buyers are expected to study to the building, the market, and the tenant.

Unless it’s a distressed or “value add” scenario, I’d never recommend a single tenant net leased asset to one of my clients in need of 1031 replacement property. I’d rather see them pay their taxes.

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A 1031 Exchange Alternative

February 15th, 2009

If you or your client is looking (and perhaps struggling) to find 1031 exchange replacement property that is appropriately priced in today’s market. I wanted to present you with another option: the Deferred Sales Trust, (DST).

The DST is a tax code compliant method to defer capital gains tax on the sale of highly appreciated residential, investment or commercial real estate or the sale of a business.without having to buy replacement real estate.

What’s also interesting is that if you’re a broker or have an advisory relationship with your client and your resident state allows, you earn reoccurring solicitor fees from the investment of the DST assets. This fee is paid each year that the assets are managed within the DST by the selected investment adviser.

You can learn more at http://likekind.org. There you’ll find answers to frequently asked questions along with a form that will generate a tax savings analysis for you and/or your client.

Please call or email if you have any questions.

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Econometric Forecasting is Worthless

February 15th, 2009

Econometric forecasting, or the use of mathematical or statistical models to predict the future of some sector of the economy, is pretty much a bunch of garbage, pure voodoo. Anyone who predicted the timing of current downturn got incredibly lucky. And the so-called experts mostly missed the boat. Among them Raymond Torto of CBRE’s Torto Wheaton Research who said back in 2006, “”We’re not predicting a crash, not predicting a disaster” and went to predict ‘investment in real estate remaining healthy, with a solid amount of liquidity in the market, and prices for assets remaining high.’

Even in October 2007, in the midst of the residential subprime implosion and when the CMBS market was already closed down for the foreseeable future, Torto Wheaton wrote, “the volatility in the markets has created buying opportunities, especially in sectors that are no longer priced for perfection yet continue to have a favorable outlook.” The truth is that most who bought in late 2007 and into early 2008 are regretting it.

Torto and Wheaton are widely respected and extremely bright; this all goes to show that even the best and the brightest can’t make successful predictions about when and how dramatically the market will turn for better or for worse.

All that’s safe to say is that the economy is cyclical, and clearly we’re in the “down” portion of the cycle, and that means it’s time to buy, when no one else is willing buy. In 2006 and 2007 I was pushing my clients to sell sell sell! Admittedly not with purely altruistic notions, but it was clear pricing then was not sustainable. Now that we’re in an unrivaled buyers markets, I’m finding most buyers are sitting on their hands, waiting for what they perceive as the “bottom.” Unfortunately, you can’t time the bottom. You just have to dive in and start buying.

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Commercial Real Estate Under Water

February 9th, 2009

Most investors that bought commercial real estate in 2007 and 2008 (along with some that bought in 2006) have seen their property values drop 20 to 30 percent. As such, they’ve seen their entire equity investment in the property wiped out.

if these owners have stable cash flowing property, there is no immediate distress. The pain will come when these loans come due: they will join the ever-growing ranks of commercial borrowers that have loans coming due and are unable to refinance. What remains to be seen is whether lenders will extend the terms of these defaulting loans.

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Ten Rent-Free Months!

February 9th, 2009

The New York Observer wrote about what on the face of it sounds like an amazing generous deal : 10 months of rent free occupancy!

I before wrote about the marketing power of “free rent,” i.e. offering a tenant rent-free occupancy at the beginning o a new lease term.

Ten rent free months on a 120 month lease on a simple basis equates to less than a 10 percent discount. On a present value basis it’s modestly more generous, because a dollar today of course is worth more than a dollar tomorrow (this is the “time value of money”).

To me, and to most tenants in my opinion, 10 months of rent free occupancy makes a much bigger impact than say a reduction in base rent from $99 per square foot to $90 per square foot.

Use rent-free occupancy to keep your existing tenants and lure new ones to your buildings.

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Don’t buy real estate service company stock

February 9th, 2009

I’ve been touting REIT stocks as a group. I believe they are widely oversold. I’d steer well clear of any real estate service company stock such as CBRE, Jones Lang Lasalle, Grubb & Ellis. These companies are dependent on commission revenue to survive, and the volume of sales was down 80% last year on the commercial side, with not much improvement on the horizon for 2009. Wall Street analysts love the reliable income these firms’ property management arms generate, but the profit margin on property management is tiny.

Grubb and Ellis is sadly my pick for most likely to collapse in the next 12 months. There’s lots of internal strife at this company and with the stock down to 80 cents a share things are looking bleak.

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